It’s the biggest game of the week for a reason. No. 3 Penn State will have its fate tested in a clash with No. 4 Ohio State Saturday, a game that could ultimately define the pursuit of a College Football Playoff appearance for both programs. Despite widespread disapproval from fans, this matchup will air at noon EDT with broadcasting designated to FOX.
James Franklin hasn’t beaten Ohio State since 2016, the same year the Nittany Lions last won a Big Ten championship. With a 7-0 record and just five regular season games remaining, the opportunity for a conference title has presented itself again. But first, Franklin needs to get over his seven-year slump against the Buckeyes.
Ohio State looks beatable after a narrow win over Nebraska last weekend, and Penn State appears confident it can get the job done. What boxes will the Nittany Lions need to check en route to victory? Here’s a preview, including players to watch, the key victory and a score prediction.
PREVIEW:
There’s not a single player with more attention on him this weekend than Drew Allar. Penn State’s starting quarterback has improved in almost every aspect since last facing the Buckeyes, and has thrived under the system of first-year offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki. The greatest question entering this matchup: will Allar be healthy enough?
Allar missed the second half of the Nittany Lions’ win at Wisconsin with an apparent left knee injury. While Allar was ruled a game-time decision by Franklin on Monday, he was a full participant at Wednesday’s practice viewing session, which could be a promising sign ahead of the pivotal game against Ohio State.
But it’s not just a matter of Allar playing. It’s also a matter of him being able to perform at the level Penn State needs him to in order to escape pressure from a staunch defensive line and find creativity against one of the nation’s best secondaries. Whether it’s Allar or backup Beau Pribula at quarterback, this game will be won by the better offense.
Kotelnicki may be limited on star-power at wide receiver, but he has Tyler Warren — the best tight end in the country — and an electric running back tandem of Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen. The Buckeyes, meanwhile, have no shortage of talent at wide receiver and running back, but the strength of their makeshift offensive line could prove pivotal.
PLAYERS TO WATCH:
RB Nick Singleton
With Allar’s health uncertain, the Nittany Lions may need to rely on their running backs for more explosive plays if they can’t get the ideal mobility out of their starting quarterback. Singleton hasn’t appeared 100%, either, since missing the Oct. 5 win over UCLA with an injury. He returned the following week, but has had his lowest rushing production of the year over his last two games.
If Penn State wants to win, Kotelnicki will need to get the most out of each phase of his offense. The running game could be the most essential aspect of the unit, and Singleton is the most talented rusher on the team.
DE Abdul Carter
There’s a glaring mismatch between the Nittany Lions’ defensive line and Ohio State’s offensive line. The Buckeyes are down not one, but likely two of their left tackles after injuries to starter Josh Simmons and his backup Zen Michalski. Ryan Day is expected to start star left guard Donovan Jackson at tackle and inexperienced sophomore Luke Montgomery at left guard.
It’s an ideal situation for Penn State, which owns one of the best defensive lines in the sport, led by potential top-5 NFL Draft prospect Abdul Carter and athletic tackle Zane Durant. Carter has been about as versatile defensively as Warren has been on offense, and could cause some major headaches for Ohio State’s depleted front.
OT Drew Shelton
With a potentially hobbled Allar at quarterback, the Nittany Lions could need to provide some extra time in the backfield to escape a defensive line that includes star edge rushers JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer. Penn State’s starting right tackle Anthony Donkoh could be out or limited by an injury on Saturday, which would signal left tackle Drew Shelton to lead the way.
The last time Tuimoloau played in Beaver Stadium, he tallied two sacks, two interceptions, a forced fumble, a fumble recovery and a touchdown, turning what was once a close game into a double-digit Buckeyes’ win. Shelton was a true freshman then, and should be hungry for his crack at the dominant Tuimoloau.
KEY TO VICTORY:
Kotelnicki doing what he does
Kotelnicki is in the spotlight. He was hired by Franklin almost specifically for games like these, games that proved too challenging for former offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich. Kotelnicki has defined himself as one of the nation’s most creative offensive minds over Penn State’s first seven games of the year. Now it’s time to prove that when it matters most.
The outcome of this game is quite possibly in Kotelnicki’s hands. How does he get a win? By keeping the defense on its toes and getting his best players the ball — the bread and butter of his system. Make Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles guess at wacky formations and feed the rock to Warren, Singleton and Allen, and the Nittany Lions could leave with a win.
PREDICTION: Penn State 27, Ohio State 24.
This isn’t the same Penn State team of years prior, nor is it the same Ohio State team. The Nittany Lions are finally capable of keeping up offensively with a typically explosive powerhouse like the Buckeyes, who have shown offensive weaknesses over each of their past two games.
Games like these are won in the trenches, and Franklin’s team has the upper hand in that department, specifically on defense. This should be a close contest, but it’s difficult not to admit that Penn State has been the better team so far this season. Home-field advantage should play a factor, as well, as the Nittany Lions attempt to take another step toward the playoff.
