FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — James Franklin has nearly experienced it all. It was just over three months ago that he left the Beaver Stadium turf to boos from fans. And he’s just over three weeks removed from an ovation inside that same venue following Penn State’s win over SMU in the first round of the College Football Playoff. He won again after that, and now eyes the national title.
This is real. This is happening. The Nittany Lions are a win over Notre Dame away from the national championship game. Penn State will kick off against the Fighting Irish in the Orange Bowl at 7:30 p.m. ET on Thursday. It’s a game that has the power to boost Franklin forward into the elite status of college football. It’s a game that has the power to forever change the trajectory of his program.
PREVIEW
The boos have become almost common practice for fans every time Franklin takes another shot at Ohio State. He hasn’t beaten the Buckeyes in nine years. But none of that will matter anymore if he can just win this one game, a big game on a big stage against a big opponent. This is the most important, most opportunistic game of Franklin’s career.
It would’ve appeared absurd to predict a Penn State national title entering this season. It would’ve appeared just as asinine at the midseason point, where a shoulda-woulda-coulda loss to the Buckeyes seemingly suggested that the Nittany Lions were, once again, not good enough for another step forward.
That’s now been drawn into question, considering the remaining four playoff teams. Penn State was a goal-line stand away from tying the Buckeyes, the national-title favorite, late in the fourth quarter on Nov. 2. Ohio State will play a Texas team in the semifinal that nearly fell to Arizona State last week. The options are enticing. But first will come Notre Dame.
SCOUTING THE FIGHTING IRISH
There are clear similarities between the Nittany Lions and Fighting Irish. The defense. The rushing attack. The size and strength in the trenches. This matchup has the makings of an all-time classic, simply based on how even both programs are built.
Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard has blossomed into one of the most advanced dual-threat weapons in football over the course of his first season in South Bend. He’s an accurate arm who hardly makes mistakes, but finds most of his success on the ground. That’s the bread and butter of head coach Marcus Freeman’s offense.
Leonard has paired well with Notre Dame’s standout running back duo in Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. However, a knee injury Love sustained in the Sugar Bowl against Georgia could limit his workload and give Penn State a slight advantage on defense. Regardless, getting past one of the nation’s top offensive lines won’t be an easy feat for the Nittany Lions.
The Fighting Irish have found a way to maintain an elite defensive identity despite season-ending injuries to a number of key players, such as cornerback Benjamin Morrison and defensive tackle Rylie Mills. But the heart and soul of their defense, for the past two years, has been safety Xavier Watts, who’s tallied six interceptions and nine pass deflections this season.
Outside of Watts, there are question marks that revolve around Notre Dame’s secondary. Will its defensive backs and short-handed defensive line be able to contain Penn State quarterback Drew Allar’s NFL arm and his two dynamic running backs?
PENN STATE’S KEY TO VICTORY
The Fighting Irish won’t score in bunches. They lack explosiveness downfield. But they have shown in two playoff games against Indiana and Georgia that they will score enough and hold off their opponent. The Nittany Lions, for any chance of winning, will need to break that mold and put on a show offensively.
This game is in Allar’s hands. He cannot give the ball away against a defense that ranks second nationally in turnover margin. Allar has, at times, made some astonishing plays this postseason. He’ll need everything to come together against Notre Dame, making tough throws while being careful with the football.
Allar’s running backs should do the rest. It’s likely offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki takes advantage of a thin-depth Fighting Irish defensive line by continuously feeding the ball to leading rushers Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen, who have recently been playing their best football so far this season. They can’t do it all, though, and Allar will be tasked with creating their opportunities.
PREDICTION: Notre Dame 23, Penn State 21.
This could go either way. It’s really a coin flip. Penn State possesses so much star power, so much future NFL talent. It’s talent that Notre Dame doesn’t necessarily have with this current group, considering all the injuries. But that has hardly mattered to this point. The Fighting Irish get it done by playing complementary football.
They are just solid enough in all three phases to win big games. They create turnovers and find a way to find a way to win. It doesn’t have to be pretty, they get it done. The Orange Bowl shouldn’t be any different. Notre Dame will nail some long field goals, force some clutch turnovers and ultimately carve out a victory.
