Narrow defeats can be perplexing. Especially when they come in bunches, like they have for Penn State football in its second consecutive autumn of discontent.
Just ask Jordan Stout, whose Saturday in Beaver Stadium was full of ups and downs, near-misses and maybes.
“You know, I was on the sideline thinking the same thing myself,” Penn State’s kicker, punter, passer, receiver and Ray Guy Award nominee was saying shortly after his Nittany Lions fell 21-17 to No. 7 Michigan. “I was talking to some of the guys about it. Talking to Journey Brown on the sideline. It’s all these big games and even these games that aren’t big where it’s so close all the time. It’s like, ‘What do we need to do?’”
Can you be happy getting close, I asked Stout.
“No, absolutely not,” he replied. “We have to keep on getting better. We have to do more. This team is so close and it’s such a good team. I’m not sure why we keep on coming up close.”
Narrow losses cannot count as moral victories, linebacker Brandon Smith said on Saturday.
“Being close doesn’t show up in the win column when you look at it on SportsCenter,” Smith said. “There’s stuff that we do good, but at the end of the day it isn’t in the right column.”
Narrow defeat after narrow defeat can redefine who you think you are. As Bill Parcells said, you are what your record says you are. Just ask senior safety Jaquan Brisker.
“Everybody on the team and me included thinks we shouldn’t be 6-4,” Brisker said.
Narrow losses that quickly turn a 5-0 start into a 6-4 slog can be demoralizing. Just ask defensive end and Temple transfer Arnold Ebikete.
“It’s definitely disappointing,” Ebikete said. “You know, you work so hard, going all the way back to summer workout, winter workout. I mean, you grind so much with our guys. Nobody wants to lose, especially when you invest so much into the game.”
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Narrow defeats can be dream-killers. Especially when they come in bunches.
Ask James Franklin, who stood at the 37-yard in Beaver Stadium all alone just minutes after his team fell to Michigan, his fourth loss in five games, and stared in space. Flanked only by a pair of much-smaller security guards, his arms were folded and his Denny’s menu-sized play sheet dangled from his left side.
Franklin just stood there, soaking it in, as his players walked past with nary a word. People – players, administrators, coaches, family — left him alone. In this moment, James Franklin was an island.
His team was close. Again. But no cigar.
Close only counts in horseshoes. But not when you’re within a field goal (27-24) midway through the fourth quarter in The Horseshoe.
Or when you have a 17-14 lead over Michigan with six minutes to play on Saturday. Or when you have a 20-13 lead over No. 3 Iowa in Kinnick with nine minutes to go. Or when you have a 10-7 lead over Illinois in Beaver Stadium with 12 minutes to play in regulation.
Or when you’re ranked No. 4 after close victories over Wisconsin and Auburn and you are close to signing another, newer long-term deal with Penn State or heading out for greener (i.e., cash) pastures in the warmer climes of universities like USC, LSU, Florida or Miami.
Franklin has been close a lot lately. But the more close losses you accumulate, the farther you are from a new deal with Penn State – or any other school, for that matter.
You can only play such behind-the-scenes games when you win close games.
In 2021, the Nittany Lions have lost four games by a total of 18 points. To put an even finer point on it: They have lost by three points to Iowa, by two to Illinois, by nine to Ohio State. And now by four to Michigan.
The difference? A backup quarterback, a run game, injuries, touchdowns, big plays, playmakers. That is what Franklin has said.
This is what he said on Saturday: “You talk about the losses by a few points. We have played hard, but we haven’t made enough big plays. You take Jahan Dotson out and we’re not making enough big plays, explosive plays. We’ve done that really for a long time. You talk about the running game, I don’t know if we’ve had very many explosive runs all year long. So that’s something we’re going to have to look at hard. But I think that’s the biggest issue. We just don’t have enough explosiveness besides Jahan Dotson in our offense.”
That the third-year backup QB is not ready? That the team has not recruited and/or developed any playmakers beyond Dotson? Or that there is not a seminal running back on the roster, ala Saquon or LJ or Ki-Jana or Warner or Cappy?
Who’s responsible, ultimately? James Franklin.
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Narrow losses that seem imminent can make for strange bedfellows. Twice in 2021, Penn State’s offense has been especially exposed on national television for lack of a playmaker. And the apparent need to go to a potential playmaker who was not up to the challenge.
The first time came against Iowa, when Ta’Quan Roberson entered the game after quarterback Sean Clifford was hurt and Roberson completed just 7 of 21 passes for 34 yards and two interceptions.
The second time came in Penn State’s final two drives against Michigan on Saturday. On three of the Nittany Lions’ final five plays from scrimmage, Clifford threw the ball to Cam Sullivan-Brown, the senior wide receiver who has been MIA for most of the 2021 season.
All three pass attempts were incomplete, including Penn State’s final play of the game (when Dotson was on the sidelines with an injury), on fourth-and-2 from its own 33. Clifford lobbed the ball to Sullivan-Brown, streaking along the sideline by the Penn State bench. The pass was long and fell incomplete. So did Penn State’s chance of an upset.
Before the first of those three unsuccessful targets, the last time Sullivan-Brown caught a 12-yard pass from Roberson was in the third quarter of the Iowa game. It went for a first down.
In the time between that pass by Roberson and the one that Clifford threw to Sullivan-Brown on third-and-7 from the Michigan 13 in the last six minutes of the game, here is what transpired (you decide if CSB was the right man at the right time):
— Sullivan-Brown was targeted three more times in the Iowa game by Roberson – and was never thrown to again – against Iowa, Illinois, Ohio State, Maryland and the first three quarters vs. Michigan — let alone actually caught a pass.
— The Nittany Lions played 16 quarters of football.
— Penn State quarterbacks attempted 189 passes.
— Eleven different Nittany Lions registered a reception.
About that Penn State offense: Franklin fired O-coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca after just one season. He replaced him with Mike Yurcich. So far, Penn State has had six rematches in 2021 with opponents they faced in 2020. So far, Penn State has failed to score as many points in 2021 as it did in 2020 against five of those foes:
The +/- points tally: Indiana -11, Iowa -1, Illinois -11, Ohio State -1, Maryland +12 and Michigan -10.
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Narrow margins are a two-way street. Sometimes, they become close wins. Here is how Penn State and Franklin have done in games decided by one score or less. I define one score as eight points, figuring a TD and a two-point conversation. The eight-point margin also gives PSU a one-score, 28-20, win over Auburn this year. (The B10 win column below includes the 38-31 Big Ten title game victory over Wisconsin.)
The last two seasons the number of close losses under Franklin has grown. Under Franklin, games decided by eight or less points are a virtual toss-up. Until they aren’t.
— From 2014-2021, Penn State is 21-19 in overall one-score games and is 13-15 in one-score Big Ten Conference games.
– From 2016-2021, Penn State is 15-13 in overall one-score games and is 10-10 in one-score Big Ten Conference games.
— In 2014-2015, Penn State was 6-6 in overall one-score games and was 3-5 in one-score Big Ten Conference games.
— In 2020-2021, Penn State is 2-5 in overall one-score games and 1-5 in one-score Big Ten Conference games.
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Narrow defeats when you were ahead in the fourth quarter may hurt most of all. Penn State has three such losses in 2021, and overall Franklin has lost 12 games where his team was leading in the fourth quarter but then lost, plus two more when his team was tied in fourth quarter then lost.
Losses to Top 10 teams are a gut-check and acid test for your team and program. Look at Purdue. Jeff Brohm’s undefeated Boilermakers beat a Top 10 opponent twice this season, against Iowa and against Michigan State.
At Penn State Franklin is 2-13 against Top 10 teams, with the wins coming in a six-week period back in 2016, against Ohio State and Wisconsin. Franklin has had two contract extensions since then, and there is talk of a third. (Add in Vandy and Franklin is 2-18 lifetime vs. Top 10 teams.)
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Losses of any kind can fall victim to recency bias, especially as the number has escalated at Penn State over the last 55 weeks. From the first game of Penn State’s bizarre and pandemic-shortened 2020 football season on Oct. 24, 2020, to when Penn State plays at Michigan State in East Lansing on Nov. 27 in less than two weeks, it will have been 400 days of chaos and twists and turns and ups and downs and downs.
Simply put, Penn State football has been erratic and queasy and uncertain since the Nittany Lions, ranked No. 5 at the time, lost 31-26 to Minnesota back in October 2019.
Since then, Franklin has had a 13-11 record — 3-2, 4-5 and 6-4.
In 2020-21, Penn State is 10-9 overall — and 7-9 in the Big Ten.
Franklin lamented a couple of times after the game on Saturday about how tough the Big Ten East is. Uh, yeah. “Obviously, the margin of error is small,” Franklin said. “You look at our side of the conference, maybe one of the better sides of the conference in college football.”
Of whom much is given much is expected. Counting a $200,000 bonus for going to a bowl game (PSU, with six wins, is bowl-eligible) and a $500,000 retention bonus if he is employed by Penn State on Dec. 31, 2021, Franklin will make $6.2 million this year, at minimum. Throw in the ability to pull cash out of a $1 million life insurance policy Penn State has on him, and Franklin makes more than $18,000 per day.
Franklin is 1-7 vs. Ohio State, 3-5 vs. Michigan and 3-4 vs. Michigan State. That’s 7-16. Against the rest of the Big Ten, he is 35-11. “The rest” are mostly games Penn State should win. Overall, Penn State is 19-14 in its last 33 Big Ten games.
Since October 2019, Penn State’s Big Ten losses include L’s at the hands of Minnesota, Indiana, Maryland, Nebraska, Iowa (twice) and Illinois. Those are not the Buckeyes, the Wolverines or Sparty.
In Franklin’s eight years at Penn State, the Nittany Lions have won one Big Ten title. In the nine years prior, they won or had a share of three.
These are not numbers of someone who is in a great position to renegotiate his contract or make any counter-offers when getting a new offer. Or go job-searching.
Instead, it is time to focus on the job at hand and truly, really, thoroughly concentrate on only going 1-0. That’s it.
Speaking of recency bias: It’s part of the business. This fall, Ed Orgeron was fired for going 8-8 at LSU after winning the national championship in 2019. And Clay Helton at USC got fired after going 46-24 overall, 36-13 in the Pac-12 — and 11-4 in his last 15 games with the Trojans.
• • • • •
The Nittany Lions’ contest at once-defeated Michigan State is looming large; it is Franklin’s 100th game at Penn State.
The Hundred could end up looking like a bell curve.
In Franklin’s first two seasons, PSU went 14-12 – pretty damn good, given the circumstances. Great even. (And big and forever kudos to Bill O’Brien for doing a whole bunch of the heavy lifting before Franklin even got to town.)
If Penn State finishes the 2021 regular season by going 1-0 and then 0-1, Franklin’s record for his most 26 recent games will be 14-12.
The same as the first 26. But very different.
