Penn State’s game at Maryland on Saturday is a BIG Big Ten Conference (and confidence) game – win, lose or draw…er, scratch that – win, lose or nine overtimes.
The Terps on the road is a gut check for James Franklin and the Nittany Lions, who have gone more than a month without a win, a stretch exacerbated by a bye week and a wicked loss to Illinois.
The Terrapins are also an acid test. (And have been for Franklin.)
Just how good are the 2021 Nittany Lions, who started 5-0 and rose to No. 4, and are now 5-3 and did not make the College Football Playoff’s Top 25 this week?
We should find out beginning at 3:30 p.m. Saturday at Capitol One Field in College Park, Md.
For Franklin, Maryland has been the kind of opponent in his eight years at Penn State that has provided a true reflection of the caliber of the Nittany Lions.
When Penn State was struggling in the wake of the scandal in 2014 – Franklin’s first season — they struggled against the Terps in Beaver Stadium and lost 20-19.
When Penn State was struggling in 2020 in the wake of Covid and an 0-2 start and a defense that yielded an average of 36 points in its first five games, it struggled mightily against the Terps. Last year, in the third game of the season, the Terps thoroughly manhandled the Nittany Lions. Maryland led Penn State, 35-7, just 125 seconds into the third quarter at Beaver Stadium, then coasted to a 35-19 victory.
In between, Penn State’s success Maryland has mirrored the program’s success:
There was the nail-biter of a 31-30 win in Baltimore’s M&T Bank Stadium in 2015, with a PSU squad that was a bit better than the 2014 version – going 4-4 in the Big Ten vs 2-6 in 2014.
Then, when Penn State was really rolling, it crushed the Terps in successive seasons in 2016-19 — 38-14, 66-3, 38-3 and 59-0. In 2017 and ’19, Penn State spanked Maryland by an aggregate 125-3.
No one is predicting Penn State victories by 63 or 59 points on Saturday. The oddsmakers are favoring Penn State by 10.
If that comes to fruition, then the Nittany Lions will have righted the ship, going beyond the moral victory in The Horseshoe, halting a three-game losing streak and — barring a collapse in two weeks against Rutgers — guaranteeing themselves seven regular season wins. That’s the same as in 2015, and one more than in 2014 – not particularly high bars these days in a Not Really Very Happy Valley these days. But add in a victory over Michigan (Nov. 13) or Michigan State (Nov. 27) and Franklin will have himself an eight-win regular season.
Not great, but good.
WHY NOT RUTGERS…OR INDIANA?
Here’s why Maryland is the litmus test for the 2021 Nittany Lions and not, say, Indiana or Rutgers. Franklin is 7-0 against Rutgers and 7-1 against Indiana. Barring a bent pylon, the Nittany Lions always win those games – whether they are playing par or even sub-par.
But Maryland, not so much.
At least under Franklin, who counts Maryland as one of his many previous institutions (two of them, in fact, since he was there as an assistant in 2000-04 and again in 2006-10, with a 4-12 season as the wide receivers coach in Green Bay sandwiched in there).
Up until 2014, Penn State had played Maryland 37 times. And won 35 times, with one loss (1961) and one tie (1989).
Now, the Terps are the floor for Penn State. PSU needs to beat Maryland, good, bad or indifferent.
Right now, the two teams are 2-3 in the Big Ten East, tied for fourth place, and 5-3 overall. Ahead of them both, fairly convincingly, are what is The Big Three these days – Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State. And in Franklin’s time at PSU, he’s lost to each and beaten each. Regularly, save for the Buckeyes. Under Franklin, Penn State is 1-7 vs. Ohio State, 3-4 vs. Michigan and 3-4 vs. Michigan State. That’s 7-15.
A Penn State loss to any or all of those three in in 2021 will not be earth-shattering (and was not last week in Columbus), though an ofer-3 would take a good but of the shine off of Franklin as a potential new hire elsewhere. All three are in the Top 7 of this week’s College Football Rankings. Penn State is not.
That is why Maryland is so important.
A loss could be the gateway to a 2020-21 combined record that borders on. 500. That would not be good.
That would put Penn State back to where it was back in 2014-15 – back when Maryland was a give-and-take, iffy proposition. Back to the future.
A loss to Maryland is a 5-4 hole Penn State does want to be in, with Michigan and Michigan State coming up. And, very likely, it is not a hole the Nittany Lions will be in. They are better than Maryland.
The question is, Will they be the better team on Saturday? The score could be close, no matter what.
The Nittany Lion defense will have to be on its (excellent, red zone-savant-like) game, given that its PSU offensive counterparts have averaged just 21.7 points per game against non-FCS competition in 2021 – 16, 28, 24, 20, 18 and 24 points.
In six games (not counting FCS competition), the Nittany Lions defense has given up only 17.7 points per game – 10, 20, 0, 23, 20 and 33.
On Saturday, will the Nittany Lions be the squad that pooped in his helmet against Illinois? Or, will it be the one that played Ohio State close last week?
Because in a weird and totally unexpected — as recently as four weeks ago — way, the Maryland game may be the biggest game remaining on Penn State’s schedule in 2021.
