The “hammer” has finally come down, but it seems the nail withstood the blow.
On Friday, the NCAA announced its official ruling regarding Michigan’s sign stealing scandal, in which the Wolverines were found to have committed several violations, including multiple Level I violations. While the ruling resulted in significantly less punishment than previously anticipated, it still hinders the Wolverines in several ways for the coming years, some of which benefit Penn State.
In addition to an impermissible scouting scheme, former Wolverine head coach Jim Harbaugh, current head coach Sherrone Moore and former staff members Connor Stalions and Denard Robinson “each failed to cooperate” with investigators, per the release.
As a result of Michigan’s scouting operation, the team was hit with a bevy of fines, including a flat $50,000 sum, a 10% fine from the football program budget, a loss of postseason revenue for the next two seasons and a 10% scholarship fine for the 2025 season. Estimates place the cumulative total of fines between $20-25 million.
Recruiting restrictions were also implemented, including a 25% reduction in official visits for the 2025 season, a 14-week recruiting communication prohibition.
In addition, show causes of varying length were assigned to Harbaugh, Moore, Stallions and Robinson, and Moore will serve a one-game suspension in 2026 in addition to the self-imposed two-game suspension in 2025.
The report claims Michigan staffers, who referred to themselves as the “KGB,” conducted 56 in-person scouting instances for 13 future opponents. While the NCAA didn’t officially name schools, Stalions did.
In a since-deleted post on X, Stalions admitted to knowing “almost every signal the whole game” on seven occasions, listing the 2022 game against Penn State as one of them. The Nittany Lions lost that game 41-17, the second-most points allowed by Penn State that year and by far their largest margin of defeat.
Michigan went 3-0 against the Nittany Lions from 2021-23, the years in which the scandal occurred. However, no wins were vacated as a result of the scandal, meaning Penn State’s losses remain on the official record, despite significant evidence suggesting these games were impacted by the scandal.
So how does this impact Penn State?
While it doesn’t change the past, the NCAA’s ruling will have several implications on the future of both programs.
As two of the preeminent universities in the region, Penn State and Michigan have clashed countless times for commitments from top recruits. While the Nittany Lions have secured their fair share of victories on the recruiting trail, the Wolverines have also scored big acquisitions and made life difficult for James Franklin and Co.
Recent misses include class of 2026 cornerback Dorian Barney, class of 2026 wide receiver Travis Johnson, class of 2027 quarterback Peter Bourque and class of 2027 offensive lineman Tristan Dare. All four are highly regarded 4-star prospects who included Penn State as a finalist but instead landed at Michigan.
There are many other examples of the two schools duking it out for blue-chip prospects with major potential, but the recruiting restrictions placed on the Wolverines will make it more challenging for them to come away with as many wins.
While Michigan will still bring in some elite recruits, a reduction in official visits allowed is an added hindrance. From 2022-24, colleges were permitted to host 70 official visits. Due to a waiver passed by the NCAA, the limit was removed for 2025, and it’s unclear if/what the limit will be in 2026, which is when the 25% reduction takes place. If it returns to 70, the Wolverines will be at just 52.5 visits.
Also, while it’s unclear when it will occur, the 14-week communication prohibition will make it difficult for the staff to maintain relationships with recruits, who may opt to focus on other options.
In addition to these restrictions, the university has sustained a hit to its reputation, which may cause reluctance from recruits who would otherwise be interested. Combining these factors, recruiting talent to Ann Arbor becomes marginally more difficult, and some commitments may consider flipping amid the fallout.
While it’s impossible to quantify the impact this will have on the Wolverines, their recruiting classes will likely decline slightly over the next cycle or two, with Penn State positioned to be one of the main beneficiaries.
In terms of on-field impact, the two are slated to clash in 2026 and 2027, first in the Big House and then at Beaver Stadium. During both seasons, Michigan will have a roster impacted by recruiting restrictions, meaning the Wolverines should have a worse roster than they otherwise would’ve for both matchups.
While the overall punishments were primarily financial, the recruiting restrictions and overall reputation knock for the program may cause on- and off-field distractions, which indirectly and directly benefits Penn State.
