Penn State Football: Orange You Glad It’s the BCS?

STATE COLLEGE – Head to head says Iowa. Alumni heads say Penn State. The heart says Fiesta. And the TV ratings say Orange.

As usual, television will probably win out.

The final edict of the Bowl Championship Series (BCS) braintrust — an oxymoron? — will be made public on Sunday, Dec. 6. That’s when the teams playing in the BCS championship game and the Fiesta, Orange, Cotton and Sugar bowls will be officially announced. Those pairings will be revealed in a broadcast on the FOX, the BCS’s television partner.

If you are trying to figure out where Penn State will end up playing this bowl season, you need to be as crazy as a FOX. That’s why I am betting the farm — OK, $2.68 — that Penn State will play the winner of the Atlantic Coast Conference on Jan. 5, 2010, in the FedEx Orange Bowl.

Here are my Top 10 reasons Penn State will play in the Orange Bowl:

1.) TV ratings for all bowl games over the past four years.

TV-wise the wise will choose Penn State. Over the past four years, not counting BCS championship games, Penn State has the third- and fourth-highest rated games on TV. That’s for ALL Bowl games, more than 120 in total, except for the title games, a totally different animal.

The Nittany Lions’ 2006 Orange Bowl win over Florida State had a 12.3 share, while the Lions’ share was 11.7 for their 2009 Rose Bowl game against Southern Cal. (Nos. 1 and 2 are USC-Michigan, a 13.9 in the 2007 Rose Bowl, and Ohio State-Notre Dame, a 12.9 in the 2006 Fiesta Bowl.)

From 2006-2009, Iowa’s top number is a 5.99, for its 2006 Alamo appearance against Texas. That ranks 21st over the past four years.

2.) The Orange Bowl desperately needs Penn State’s TV audience.

The folks at the Orange Bowl have been getting squeezed out by poor match-ups, which have in part resulted in poor ratings. To wit:

Orange Bowl TV Ratings

2009 — Virginia Tech-Cincinnati, 5.4 share

2008 — Kansas-Virginia Tech, 7.4

2007 — Louisville-Wake Forest, 6.98

2006 — PENN STATE-FLORIDA STATE, 12.3

With numbers like the past three years, the O-Bowl sponsors can’t be thrilled. And even though FOX’s four-year contract with the BCS bowls ends this year, continued low numbers would still be costly. If FOX sells an ad for X dollars based on an 8 share, but the game only does a 6.5, then Fox needs to give free time or some sort of make-good to those advertisers as payment for bad ratings. Helluva way to end a contract that didn’t exactly make FOX rich to begin with.

Behemoth ABC/ESPN has a new contract with the BCS bowls for 2011-2014. (Beginning with next season’s bowl games on Jan. 1, 2010.) So they’ll want to have good ratings this year, which they’ll use as a basis to sell advertising in next year’s Orange Bowl.

And, God bless their Southern souls, Clemson and Georgia Tech — one of which will win the ACC and a berth in the O-Bowl – are 5-6-7 share teams. Penn State is in the 11-12 neighborhood.

3.) Those TV numbers work for Orange but not Fiesta.

The Fiesta Bowl has done just fine on the tube, thank you, over the past four seasons. Ohio State twice, Oklahoma twice, Notre Dame and Texas just might have something to do with it. Here are the TV ratings for the Fiesta:

Fiesta Bowl TV Ratings

2009 — Texas-Ohio State, 10.4 share

2008 — West Virginia-Oklahoma, 11.1

2007 — Boise State-Oklahoma, 8.4

2006 — Ohio State-Notre Dame, 12.9

It ain’t broke, so don’t fix it. Too bad — I love Tostitos.

4.) Penn State will not bring tons of people to the Fiesta Bowl.

The trip is too far for too many in this economy. And it’s been 13 years since Penn State played in the Fiesta Bowl, so more than a half-generation of Penn State fans know nothing of the desert’s charms.

And when it comes to students, there is a big reason that Penn State students are setting up Facebook groups and fan pages for the Orange Bowl faster than a keg is kicked at Phi Kappa Kega. They can drive to the game. In one car. With five people. While only stopping for gas. Only to arrive in Miami and have them all squeeze in one hotel room. With one bathroom. 

Shed no tears for the Fiesta, though. It has had 24 of 25 sellouts in the past 25 years. So no matter who’s on the field, the F-Bowl is full.

5.) The Fiesta Bowl has a new wife.

Both sides certainly have fond memories of when the Nittany Lions and Fiesta Bowl were going steady. Penn State is 6-0 in the Fiesta, dating back to when the bowl game was a bit of a rebel and was played in Tempe, Ariz. In fact, a case can be made that Joe Paterno and Penn State helped put the Fiesta Bowl on the map. The Nittany Lions played in the Fiesta three times from Dec. 25, 1977, to Jan. 1, 1982, against Arizona State, Ohio State and Southern Cal.

And Penn State’s 14-10 win over Miami, Fla., on Jan. 2, 1987, was a made-for-TV national championship played on a Friday night on NBC. The game drew a 25.1 share, still the highest rating for a college football game. That was then.

But now the Fiesta is married to the Big 12 and Penn State is a former girlfriend — albeit a hot former girlfriend, but that’s it. The Big 12 champion gets an automatic bid to play in the Fiesta. And if that champion is headed to the national championship game — like, most likely, Texas will be in six weeks or so — the Fiesta will most probably select another Big 12 team, if it is BCS eligible.

Texas –- which defeated Texas A&M 49-39 on Friday — will play Nebraska for the Big 12 conference championship on Saturday, Dec. 5. I figure Texas will win and gain a spot in the BCS national championship game. If the Longhorns lose, all hell breaks loose. They’ll take a coveted at-large bid that could send Penn State to the Capital One Bowl or even the Outback.

If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma on Saturday, they’ll be in the Fiesta Bowl –- assuming Texas beats Nebraska. That opens the door for Boise State or TCU to take the other spot.

6.) Folks in the know in Arizona say Penn State is a no-go.

I have a great contact in Arizona who knows what is news about the bowl games. He and his people are very well-connected. Here’s what he has to say:

“The Fiesta Bowl people are keeping things close to the vest, but based on their recent track record and allegiances I\’d be really surprised if Penn State was their choice, in spite of past history.

“I would think the Fiesta Bowl will try to honor its commitment to the Big 12 and lean toward Oklahoma State if it beats Oklahoma, taking the highest ranked Big 12 team available.

“I also feel the Fiesta Bowl will have no problem inviting either TCU or Boise State. In the past few years the Fiesta Bowl has had good experiences with non-BCS conference teams — notably Utah and that memorable Boise State win over Oklahoma a couple of years ago. The so-called BCS-busters appeal to the Fiesta Bowl\’s history of going against the grain, such as figuring out a way to bring two unbeaten independents — Penn State and Miami — together to play for the national title in 1987.”

7.) Head to head doesn’t matter. Looking like Diane Lane does.

With Ohio State headed to the Rose Bowl, only one other team from the Big Ten Conference can play in a BCS. That means either Penn State or Iowa. Not both.

Yes, Iowa did beat Penn State head-to-head. So you can make a case that victory by the Hawkeyes breaks a tie created by the teams’ identical 10-2 (overall) and 6-2 (Big Ten) records.

But I’ve read over the BCS rules — at http:/www.bncsfootball.org/bcsfb/faq — and nowhere in there does it say that at-large teams should be selected based on their head-to-head records. Nowhere. So get over it.

Besides, head-to-head doesn’t always count. Ask Texas. Or the kids playing pick-up games.

In the Big 12 in 2008, Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma each had a 7-1 record in the South division. And even though Texas beat Oklahoma 45-35 in the regular season, the Sooners advanced to the Big 12’s title game against Missouri. Doing so effectively boxed out the Longhorns from playing for the national title. Oklahoma did beat Missouri and then went to the national title game, where it lost 24-14 to Florida. Sucked for the Longhorns.

Picking a BCS is like choosing up hoops teams on the playground. It’s predicated on who can help you win — in this case, winning is selling tickets, getting TV ratings, filling hotel rooms.

It’s a beauty contest. Penn State is Diane Lane — sophisticated, a mature beauty essentially without peer, well-known and well-respected for quality performances, someone that male audiences will watch again and again.

Iowa? Well, my summer intern, kick snapper Andrew Pitz — a two-time Academic All-American by the way — is from Iowa, so I best be careful. So let’s just leave it at this: Diane Lane does not live in Iowa.

8.) Iowa is on a downward spiral, having lost two of its last three games.

Since the inception of the BCS in 1998, only three teams have played in a BCS game after losing two games after Oct. 31. And Oklahoma, Miami and Florida State only made the bowl because they were automatic picks as conference champions.

In other words, no team has finished its regular season like Iowa has and then finished up in a BCS bowl.

Penn State, as we all know, dismantled Michigan State on national TV last Saturday as Daryll Clark threw for four touchdowns. Two weeks will have gone by between that win and the final BCS selections, but the Nittany Lions’ final performance should leave a strong lasting impression (and, hey, doesn’t that count for a lot with the NCAA basketball tournament committee?).

9.) Penn State has the numbers.

Living alumni: Penn State — 504,000. Iowa — 238,879.

State population: Pennsylvania — 12,448,279. Iowa – 3,002,813.

2009 overall attendance and home game average: Penn State — 1,133,630 overall / 107,008 home ave. Iowa — 913,813 overall / 70,214 home ave.

Miles from home field to Dolphin Stadium: Penn State — 1,238. Iowa — 1,464.

Orange Bowl appearances – Penn State 5 (4-1 record). Iowa – 1.

10.) The No 1. compelling storyline for a non-title game.

Joe Paterno. 393 wins and counting. And you know how Florida loves its senior citizens.