The usual summer fan debates for Penn State football are largely settled. The starting quarterback and running backs are decided and the offensive line is in good shape. The defense appears to be loaded, and the team is universally seen as a title contender.
In good times, people will still find something to argue about, and this summer’s two main topics are the temporary seating in Beaver Stadium, and a weak non-conference schedule.
Let’s start with the temporary seating. There is more to it than meets the eye.
Since 2001 when the south end zone deck went up and penned in all the noise, Beaver Stadium became one of the loudest venues in the country. And with that deck essentially enclosing the stadium, even on windy days the breeze was never a big factor at playing level. In fact, years ago we had a study done that confirmed what we were seeing anecdotally on game days—wind was rarely a factor.
Those of us old enough to remember before the north end zone deck went up have a very different memory of what wind used to be like in Beaver Stadium. With no deck on either end, the wind could howl from one end of the field to another. Those who remember the 1987 home win over Notre Dame will remember stretches of that game when you did not even call passes because it wouldn’t go anywhere. (Blair Thomas racked up 200+ rushing yards to carry the day).
Those things are notable for a few reasons.
With the new temporary seats up on the west side and no real wall behind them, winds coming from the west could have an impact on the field and on the game. It would be a worthwhile exercise to do a wind study before games in October and beyond. It could be a great class project for students in PSU’s No. 1 meteorology school and excellent College of Engineering.
The wind is not the only game factor that will change. On late afternoon games, the shadows will not cover the field as early. As you throw deep passes up the east sideline headed toward the south end zone the glare will be a factor later in the game.
The noise in the stadium will not be bouncing off solid surfaces as much so that level may lower. But as anyone who remembers sitting in the south end zone bleachers, stomping your feet on those bleachers makes a hell of a racket. So, what is lost in vocal volume can be made up by foot stomping.
These are all subtle but substantive game-impacting changes that come from a new temporary configuration on the west side.
For the fans, sunscreen would be advisable without the press box behind them. Be ready to dress for that wind up high. And don’t drop your keys, wallet, cell phone or that flask you got past stadium security because the bleachers are open to the platform below. (The lost and found bin at Beaver Stadium is sure to be well stocked with items that fell between the seats).
Moving on to the non-conference schedule debate, Penn State has adopted a very specific scheduling strategy for this year and the next few years. The scheduling has been and will be devoid of games against traditional national powers. The next few years will feature home-and-home series against Syracuse and Temple.
The light scheduling is defended by a valid argument that the Big Ten plays nine conference games while the SEC plays just 8 and Notre Dame doesn’t have a conference title game.
In the defense of some of the SEC teams, they have maintained meaningful games against in-state non-conference rivals (Florida/Florida State, Georgia/Georgia Tech, South Carolina/Clemson and Kentucky/Louisville). Those games are good for college football. In the SEC, Alabama has games this year at Florida State and against Wisconsin. Florida plays Miami and Florida State. LSU plays Clemson.
But if you want an apples-to-apples comparison look no further than the other power teams in the Big Ten. In the next seven years Ohio State has two games apiece against Texas, Alabama and Georgia. The next three years Michigan plays Oklahoma twice and Texas. USC plays Notre Dame for the next two years and Wisconsin plays Alabama and Notre Dame in that same span.
And looking to what many sarcastic Penn State fans are calling “the season opener” against Oregon in late September, the Ducks will have played games against Oklahoma State and in-state rival Oregon State before coming here.
In the 12-team playoff era most hoped we would see big non-conference games, and that has happened in some places.
But if you look at it this way, in the Big Ten there are four to five teams that have resources that are different than everyone else. The NIL age has widened the resource gap between schools like Penn State and Purdue or Northwestern.
Doing the math, a 10-2 Big Ten team probably gets into the 12-team playoff regardless of the strength of the non-conference schedule (exhibit A: Indiana last year). Knowing that a school like Penn State will only play two games per year against the four or five teams that are at the top, a 7-2 Big Ten record and a 3-0 non-conference slate against anyone will get you into the playoff. And when a 16-team playoff comes a 6-3 Big Ten finish and a 3-0 non-conference record gets a 9-3 Big Ten team in almost every time.
Of note: In the 10 years after Penn State joined the Big Ten in 1993, eight different teams won the Big Ten title, with Penn State and Michigan both finishing undefeated in 1994 and 1997. It was a much deeper league because of a more level playing field back then. (Trivia: In those first 10 years only Minnesota, Michigan State and Indiana failed to get a share of the Big Ten title).
And for now we’ll pretend that the Big Ten’s 28-team playoff is not going to happen for a while. That proposal should probably wait for the players’ union to form and be negotiated as part of the future collective bargaining agreement.
So, the current non-conference schedule has some thought behind it. That is not an endorsement of that approach, just an acknowledgment of that course and the calculation behind it.
But this has become a business, and the financial impact is a different argument.
If you keep asking for more money it must come from somewhere. Keep in mind there is no dramatic NFL/NBA/NHL-style windfall of money that comes from making the playoffs. The Big Ten shares revenues among all 18 teams.
So where do you find some big money in the Big Ten model? In your non-conference schedule.
When you have unsold tickets and you’re selling thousands of other non-conference game tickets at $30 per ticket, you are leaving lots of money on the table. Despite public announcements of 106,000+ attendance with 10,000 empty seats visible, those phantom attendees for games against FIU represent lost revenue opportunities for concessions, parking, hotels and restaurants.
There are major financial interests in playing at least one really good non-conference opponent. If someone like Georgia or Notre Dame came to Penn State, the face value on those tickets would be higher than other games and people would gladly pay a premium to see that matchup.
That creates the extra cash to cover escalating salaries, player revenue sharing and the exploding expenses that football programs have demanded. It also provides huge exposure in September when you get College Game Day or Big Noon Kickoff live from your stadium.
The other danger to the lesser non-conference schedule comes from the future approach to season ticket sales. If a team plays three bad non-conference opponents and hosts just one truly big game, the secondary ticket market makes it possible to access tickets to just the games you really want without having to offload excess tickets you have for games you won’t attend.
Looking to future season ticket sales, student sections, Penn State’s included, only truly fill up for one or two games. That is a national trend that should concern the stewards of the game.
So, as you look at the non-conference schedule, you see two approaches taken by Big Ten schools. One approach sets a team up to help make the playoffs with a guaranteed 3-0 non-conference schedule that leaves money on the table. The other approach is to take on some big opponents and test your team while generating more cash and brand equity by putting your team out there early in the year.
Either way, the games go on this fall and the fun begins in just a few days.
